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Trump delays Mexico, Canada tariffs; Restaurants stay in expansion mode; Real estate CEO departures rise

Trump delays Mexico, Canada tariffs; Restaurants stay in expansion mode; Real estate CEO departures rise

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Trump delays Mexico, Canada tariffs; Restaurants stay in expansion mode; Real estate CEO departures rise

Trump delays Mexico, Canada tariffs

President Trump issued a one-month delay for new 25% trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada that were slated to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday. But plans to enact a new 10% tariff affecting imports from China remained in effect as of Monday afternoon.

Analysts Monday warned of risks still looming for real estate and the larger economy if and when all planned tariffs are enacted. Oxford Economics noted that even if tariffs get watered down and eventually lifted, new protectionist trade measures are expected to cut recent growth in both residential and commercial development during 2025.

The research firm projected that planned tariffs by themselves could bring down residential investment growth rates by at least 1 percentage point from 2024, and reduce commercial investment growth by 1.6 percentage points.

“No matter how this trade war unfolds, there will be pockets of resilience as spillovers from artificial intelligence support data-center construction, and solid finances guard against the risks to state and local government investment,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a statement.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that total U.S. spending on residential and commercial construction projects topped $2.1 trillion for full-year 2024, up 6.5% from 2023. Total spending for the month of December rose 0.5% from the prior month and increased 4.3% from December 2023.

Trump’s decision to delay the planned Mexico tariff at least partially calmed stock markets after a significant selloff in early trading Monday. Most major U.S. stock indexes closed for the day down less than 1%, though the Nasdaq exchange declined 1.2%. The Canada delay was announced after the close of trading.

Restaurants stay in expansion mode

U.S. restaurant performance declined in December for the first time in five months, though operators overall ended 2024 with plans for expansion, according to the latest survey tracking by the National Restaurant Association.

The trade group’s latest performance index, gauging operators’ views of current and future business conditions, posted at 100.1 for December. That was down 1 percentage point from November, though numbers above 100 indicate the industry is in expansion mode.

Gauging factors such as same-store sales, foot traffic and labor and capital spending, December’s decline in the restaurant group index came after four consecutive monthly gains. Still, 49% of surveyed operators said they made capital investments for equipment, expansion or remodeling during the prior three months, the highest survey reading in five months.

Also, 55% said they planned to make capital investments during the next six months, the highest reading since the February 2024 survey period. “Looking ahead, restaurant operators have a generally positive outlook for business conditions,” the trade group said in a statement.

The past year was a challenging one for several restaurant chains and regional franchisees, as operators responded to rising costs and slowing sales with various financial moves. Those included job reductions, location closings and bankruptcy filings.

Real estate CEO departures rise

There were 53 CEO turnovers at U.S. real estate-focused companies during 2024, more than doubling the 25 for 2023, but those exits were just a tiny fraction of the total 2,221 changeovers across multiple industries, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Overall CEO departures topped 2023 by 16% and marked a record in 22 years of tracking by the outplacement firm. Changeovers were led in 2024 by the government and nonprofit category with 493, followed by healthcare at 277, technology at 226, and entertainment and leisure at 155.

“The environment of economic, political, and regulatory uncertainty that prevailed in 2024 certainly led to many CEO exits,” Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger said in a statement. “With that as a backdrop, we also saw rapid technological advancement and boards that were laser focused on efficiency and productivity.”

That was especially true at publicly traded companies, where CEO turnovers hit a record 373 in 2024, up 24% from 2023 and also beating the prior record of 312 in 2019. “If CEOs were perceived to be lacking, they were not tolerated,” Challenger said.

Among other industries tied to commercial and residential real estate, financial services had 112 CEO exits in 2024, down from 116 in 2023; construction had 39, up from 25; and retail had 40, down from 52.

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