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Rising costs curb travel plans; Inflation rate edges lower; Equipment spending increases

Rising costs curb travel plans; Inflation rate edges lower; Equipment spending increases

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Rising costs curb travel plans

Escalating expenses for everyday items like eggs and milk have some consumers trimming back plans for vacations in coming months, a trend potentially exacerbated by concerns that trade tariffs and other government policies could send costs higher.

Travel trends have particular implications for hotel, retail and other real estate tied to tourism. The latest national survey by travel research firm Future Partners found 32.5% of respondents as of mid-February believed that now is a good time to spend money on travel. That was down 4.4 percentage points from January.

Future Partners said the share of American travelers who believe travel will be a “high budget priority” in the next three months was 54.3%, a drop of nearly 4 percentage points. Personal financial reasons were cited as the most frequent reason for cutting back on travel, with the average annual expected consumer leisure travel budget dropping more than 15% from January, to $4,973 in the February survey.

Consumer skittishness was reflected in the latest February consumer confidence survey by The Conference Board, showing pessimism rising and spending plans for vacations, cars and other big-ticket items declining significantly based on a six-month moving average.

The economic research group said household spending priorities are shifting more toward home purchases, with mortgage rates expected to moderate, along with personal and health care, movies and live entertainment.

Inflation rate edges lower

An inflation gauge that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve showed prices rising at an annual rate of 2.5% in January, down from 2.6% in the prior month and continuing on a generally downward path over the past several months.

But the latest Commerce Department data showed household spending dropped about 1%, or $52.7 billion, from the prior month, after six consecutive months of gains, even as personal income rose 0.9%, or $221.9 billion. Some analysts have said slowed spending reflects declines in consumer confidence, reflected in recent national surveys.

“The drop in spending was worse than we expected, driven by a large drop in spending on autos, retail, and recreation services, which suggest most of it was weather related,” said Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics, in a statement.

While pending U.S. trade tariffs remain “a cloud over spending,” Pearce said overall fundamentals remain positive for consumer spending with the rise in household incomes and wages.

The inflation figure was lower than the better-known consumer price index published earlier by the Labor Department, showing annual inflation at 3% for January. It was also closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for optimum inflation as it considers future interest rate policy. The Fed’s next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for March 18-19.

Equipment spending increases

Spending on business equipment and other durable goods meant to last more than three years picked up in January, though analysts said it’s not yet known how recent government cuts and newly imposed trade tariffs might affect investment prospects in coming months.

“For now, fundamentals such as corporate profit margins and credit conditions are favorable, but a surge in trade policy uncertainty casts a pall on the outlook,” Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Bernard Yaros said in a statement.

The latest Commerce Department figures showed new U.S. orders for manufactured durable goods rising 3.1% from the prior month to $286 billion in January, after two straight monthly declines. Transportation equipment led the increase with a 9.8% rise to $96.5 billion, as non-defense aircraft and parts orders nearly doubled from the previous month.

“Aircraft investment has whipsawed business investment in equipment due to last year’s Boeing strike, and this sector is set to deliver another outsized boost to Q1 growth as aircraft and parts shipments recover much faster than anticipated,” Yaros said.

Durable goods orders often influence demand for industrial and retail real estate. Data showed smaller monthly increases for categories such as computers and related business equipment at 7.1%; communications equipment at 0.6%; and appliances and electronics at 0.1%. Motor vehicle and parts orders declined 2.5% for the month.

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