CEO confidence about business prospects increased significantly in the Conference Board’s latest quarterly national survey, though cybersecurity threats and global political tensions remain among top concerns for corporate leaders going forward.

The New York-based economic research group’s index of CEO confidence, based on several metrics, posted at 60 for this year’s first quarter, with numbers above 50 indicating generally positive sentiment among chief executives. The latest figure was 9 points higher than the fourth quarter of 2024 and the highest reading in three years.

“Consistent with an improved expected outlook, there was a notable increase in the share of CEOs expecting to increase investment plans and a decline in the share expecting to downsize investment plans,” Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist with the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Still, a majority of CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months.”

More than half, or 55%, of 134 responding CEOs listed cybersecurity and global geopolitics among the highest-risk matters for their industries. Concerns have generally declined in relation to several types of risk compared with the first quarter of 2024, though there are lingering worries over legal and regulatory uncertainty tied to shifts in federal government policies, along with financial risks from the changing economic climate.

Regarding their office work arrangements, most CEOs plan to maintain hybrid schedules over the next 12 to 18 months, at a time when many large companies have recently been increasing their in-office requirements. The Conference Board survey found 67% of CEOs currently require in-office work three or four days weekly, and 71% plan to maintain that policy for the next 12 to 18 months.

Responses showed 19% of CEOs currently require 100% in-office work, but 26% plan to implement that requirement within the next 18 months. Overall, 73% of CEOs said they planned to grow or maintain the size of their workforce over the next 12 months, essentially unchanged from the prior quarter’s survey, while 27% planned to reduce payrolls, up 1 percentage point.

Consumer sentiment showed extended signs of decline noted earlier by University of Michigan researchers, with a closely watched national index posting at 64.7 for February. Inflation remains a top concern for respondents amid shifts in government trade policies and global political tensions.

Numbers generally reflect the percentage of consumers with favorable views of their household finances and the larger economy, gauged through several metrics including spending, income and job growth. February’s revised index posted well below January’s 71.7 and the 76.9 figure for February 2024.

“Expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell back about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023,” Joanne Hsu, the university’s director of consumer surveys, said in a Feb. 21 statement. She said consumers across multiple demographics “exhibit substantial uncertainty” in light of policy changes under the new presidential administration.

Due largely to concerns that new and pending trade tariffs could boost consumer prices, the latest average year-ahead expectation for year-ahead inflation was 4.3%, up from 3.3% in the university’s January survey. The official U.S. annual inflation rate was 3% in January, up from 2.9% in December, according to the Labor Department.

The U.S. employment market remains in good shape despite a wave of federal job reductions now underway, according to a new report from Oxford Economics.

Analysts at the research firm said the current rate of overall U.S. hiring “continues to be worrisome,” but the pace of layoffs remains below historical averages. This labor market equilibrium means the Federal Reserve will likely be more focused going forward on inflation trends in its interest rate decisions, at a time of pricing uncertainty caused by government shifts in trade tariff and immigration policies.

“Several of the metrics that had the Fed concerned about downside risks to the labor market have improved or stabilized,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in the report. “Although we don’t believe the unemployment rate is the best barometer of the labor market’s health, the Fed pays close attention to it, and it has edged lower.”

The latest Labor Department data showed the national unemployment rate at 4% in January, down from 4.1% in December. Economists are watching for the long-term effects of ongoing federal government job cuts that have already affected more than 200,000 workers.

“Layoffs and resignations among federal government workers lend downside risk to our forecast, particularly given the low amount of labor market churn,” Vanden Houten said. “However, federal government workers comprise only a small fraction of total employment and job losses among these workers and the spillover effects are unlikely to significantly alter the overall picture of the labor market.”