Even amid rising global political tensions, a prominent economic development organization is upgrading its prospects for global economic recovery from disruptions lingering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economists at the International Monetary Fund Tuesday projected 3.2% growth in global gross domestic product for 2024, revised from its 3.1% forecast made in January. The same 3.2% rate is expected to hold in 2024 and 2025 as conditions line up for a soft landing in the U.S. and other countries.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization projects 2.7% growth in the U.S. economy for 2024, which would improve on the 2.5% growth posted in 2023. However, U.S. growth is expected to slow to 1.9% in 2025.

“The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity and employment growth, but also strong demand in an economy that remains overheated,” IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. “This calls for a cautious and gradual approach to easing by the Federal Reserve.”

The Federal Reserve previously signaled up to three reductions in its key lending rate could take place this year. However, some analysts said rate cuts could be delayed after March’s U.S. job growth and inflation came in higher than expected.

Gourinchas predicted “less economic scarring” ahead from crises of the past four years as supply chains and labor markets continue to recover worldwide and energy costs ease, but persistent high inflation remains a risk. “Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year,” he said. 

The security technology firm’s tracking is based on anonymous keycard data from clients’ office properties, and the average peaked at 53% in late January.

The latest numbers showed the three Texas cities in their usual lead positions, with Austin at 60%, Houston at 58% and Dallas at 56.2%. They were followed by Chicago at 54.2%, New York at 50% and Washington, D.C., at 48.9%.

Figures for barometer cities have generally been on the upswing in 2024. Even the cities most frequently found at the bottom of the 10-city listing — such as Philadelphia, tech-centric San Francisco and San Jose, California — have consistently posted just above 40% of pre-pandemic attendance since mid-January, after lingering at high-30% levels for several months. 

Prospects for enhanced U.S. manufacturing have increased with a slew of planned new facilities geared to production of computer chips, electrical vehicle batteries and other crucial components, as companies look to boost domestic production and avert supply chain bottlenecks. But manufacturing activity results have yet to surface for some states.

The New York Federal Reserve’s April survey found manufacturing in the Empire State contracting so far in 2024, with new orders and shipments declining from March levels as employment prospects also lowered. Regional Fed researchers said surveyed firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, but optimism and capital spending plans remained subdued by historical standards.

Prior to this week’s news that Samsung will receive federal grants to expand chip production near Austin, manufacturing prospects in Texas were also seen contracting. The latest company survey by the Federal Reserve’s Dallas branch, reported in late March, showed Texas factory activity weakening based on factors including new orders, capacity utilization and shipments.

U.S. manufacturing demand — a catalyst for real estate usage — has recently been varied among industries but has generally been on the upswing. Data firm S&P Global this month reported nationwide manufacturing activity expanded for the third straight month in March, based on its surveys of corporate purchasing managers.

“A key development in recent months has been the broadening-out of the upturn from services to manufacturing, with reviving demand for goods driving the fastest increase in factory production since May 2022,” S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said in a statement. Rising investment in machinery and equipment is “a further sign of firms gaining confidence in the outlook,” he said.