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Existing Homes Market Heats Up, Especially in the Midwest

Existing Homes Market Heats Up, Especially in the Midwest

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Estimated 93% of Metropolitan Areas Post First-Quarter Price Gains, Industry Data Shows

The cost to purchase an existing home is climbing in metropolitan areas across the United States — and prices in the Midwest seem to be leading the way.

Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, 93% of the 221 metropolitan areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors posted price gains in single-family existing homes, according to the industry group’s latest quarterly data released Wednesday. The measure includes prices for pre-owned single-family houses, condos and co-ops.

Of the 10 areas with the largest year-over-year median price growth, six were in the Midwest across Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana. Fond du Lac, Wisconsin, experienced the greatest annual increase, with prices climbing 23.7%. The next three biggest jumps were in Kankakee, Illinois; Rockford, Illinois; and Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, all of which saw at least a 20% surge in prices.

The data comes as the housing market, and the existing housing market specifically, faces challenges. Total existing home sales fell nationally between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, according to NAR data. At the same time, mortgage rates went on an upward trend throughout the quarter, with the 30-year fixed-rate reaching up to 6.94%. That could help apartment owners and developers by encouraging more potential buyers to stay in rentals longer.

Despite the significant growth in prices across Wisconsin and Illinois though, all six of the metropolitan areas included in the top 10 still had a median sales price lower than the national median sales price in the first quarter. Since last year, the national median price for an existing home grew at an accelerated pace, climbing 5% to $389,400. But across the six Wisconsin and Illinois metropolitan areas, the median price ranged from $179,800 to $274,100.

Other data has found Midwestern markets are strong, yet affordable. A Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking released in April ranked Rockford, Illinois, as "America's top housing market." The top six markets were in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and Indiana.

Overall, the Midwest saw a 7.4% increase in the annual median home price in the first quarter.

Other metropolitan areas on the list included Johnson City, Tennessee; Racine, Wisconsin; Newark, New Jersey; Bloomington, Indiana; New York-Jersey City-White Plains in New York and New Jersey; and Cumberland, Maryland.

“Astonishingly, greater than 90% of the country’s metro areas experienced home price growth despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades,” Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a statement. “In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.”

Other Regional Highlights

The Northeast saw the largest jump in prices, clocking an 11% annual increase. In the Midwest, prices grew 7.4%; in the West prices expanded 7.3%; and in the South, prices increased 3.3%. NAR’s data echoes other data showing the Northeast posting major gains.

The West, too, saw significant price jumps, partly due to price dips last year, according to NAR’s data. Eight out of 10 of the most expensive markets were in California. The most expensive market was San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara with a median home price of $1.84 million, up 13.7% from a year ago.

“The expensive markets in the West, where home prices declined last year, are roaring back,” Yun said. “Price dips in that region were viewed as second-chance opportunities by many buyers.”

Honolulu and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Florida, were also among the top 10 priciest metropolitan areas.

Only 7% of surveyed markets, 15 of the 221, saw annual home price declines during the first quarter. That’s fewer declines compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

Possible Market Improvement

Though the big picture seems cloudy, there are some possible glimmers of improvement in the housing market, according to recent data and economic analysis.

For one, the latest NAR metropolitan price data found that despite “limited inventory and elevated home prices in the first quarter,” affordability improved when compared to the end of 2023. Mortgage payments and the share of family income spent on mortgage payments were both down on a quarterly basis.

There’s also the possibility of increased stock. Compared to the fourth quarter, existing home sales grew nationally and in all four regions.

The existing homes market has been constricted by the so-called lock-in effect, keeping homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates during the pandemic in place rather than moving and taking on a higher mortgage rate. In 2023, home sales were at near 30-year lows, according to Yun, but that could change soon.

The “second half of this year looks to be better because we’re getting a little more inventory; the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates. Even with a delay, that’s going to boost home sales,” Yun said during a presentation at the Realtors Legislative Meetings Tuesday in Washington, D.C.

There are also more people — and jobs — in the US than 30 years ago, meaning there’s pent-up demand that will have to be released into the market in coming years, prompting more sales, Yun said.

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