Likewise, the Midwest’s muted multifamily construction pipeline — especially compared with the Sun Belt markets — keeps its collective vacancy rate low and its year-over-year asking rent growth above the national norm.

The U.S. multifamily market is still feeling the heat after its rise in apartment complex groundbreakings, leaving the nation with a bloated inventory of four- and five-star properties. Yet, most Midwest markets maintained a construction completion rate below the national average for more than seven years.

Midwest markets that are in relative balance — where vacancy and completions are generally aligned and vacancy rates are at or below their historical averages — should be able to maintain a stable rent growth trajectory.

Yet, finding that sweet spot of equilibrium can be elusive. Despite the 10 largest Midwestern markets posting year-over-year rent growth above the national average, half of them post current vacancy rates above their 2015–19 pre-pandemic respective benchmarks.

In mid-November, Chicago’s 2.3% year-over-year rent growth rate was more than double the national average. This asking-rent-growth rate is far from stellar, to be sure, but it is steady. It is also the first time Chicago has maintained a higher year-over-year rate of asking rent growth — and a lower overall vacancy rate — than the national index in over 10 years, and it has kept this double-measure streak since 2022’s fourth quarter.